scienticians Archive

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Not so sceptical my brains will fall out

Tim Dean has written a wonderfully reasonable and thoughtful piece on why conservatives are more likely to be climate change sceptics. I am somewhat more suspicious of their motives.

As you can imagine, this article provoked a flood of outraged, incendiary, irrational commentary from conservative climate change deniers.

Indeed, many climate deniers say their inability to face the facts of human-induced climate change stems from the most enlightened spirit of scientific rigour and critical thinking. As commenter ‘Unconvinced’ puts it:

You forgot the most important attributes of conservatives – the ability to think for themselves, and self-determination. Most of us will try to look at the evidence for ourselves not just blindly follow someone claiming authority.

That’s right folks, we should tip our hats and thank our lucky stars for contrarian free-thinkers like Unconvinced who bravely stand against the tide of public opinion and overwhelming evidence in the pursuit of truth, justice, Australia and cheap electricity.

Isn’t it simply breathtaking how many of these  über-intelligent experts in assessing scientific evidence choose to grace us with their wisdom in online comments? And how they all say exactly the same thing in exactly the same way, almost as though they’re reading from the same few sources?

You really have to marvel at the irony in the way they decry those who believe in climate change science as gullible sheep, even as they uncritically put their faith in unscientific climate-denier propaganda.

As Bernard Keane observes in Crikey:

Scepticism connotes a healthy willingness to be convinced if the evidence is sufficient, whereas of course no amount of evidence will ever convince critics of climate science, even as the evidence mounts and the numbers remorselessly add up to a warming planet. They’ll explain them away, make up their own data, reformat their graphs and cherrypick whatever data or explanations they can find — exactly as AIDS denialists and genocide denialists do.

Co-opting the language of scientific scepticism or contrarianism isn’t going to cut through the stench of those steaming piles of irony they’re trying to bury us under.

1

The media’s credibility has already been nuked

The situation in Fukushima is either a dire, Chernobyl-like disaster that will render vast sections of the Japanese coast uninhabitable for centuries or a minor incident that demonstrates the safety of well designed nuclear power plants. Sometimes both at once, if you believe the media.

Journalists, of course, have no idea about how a nuclear power plant works and lack the skills to judge the accuracy of anything anyone says. They’re on fairly safe ground if they stick to reporting the latest facts – there was an explosion at this reactor; that reactor was on fire but now isn’t; this agency said that; that company said this. But when it comes to trying to make sense of what’s going on, it’s all just he said, she said.

Most people commenting on the nuclear power plant situation in Japan are not nuclear-energy experts. They tend to sensationalise the situation because they’re more likely to get on TV, sell newspapers, attract clicks that way.

Most nuclear-energy experts work for the nuclear-energy industry either directly or as consultants. They tend to downplay the situation because they earn a living from telling people nuclear energy is safe.

Who has the knowledge to decide if any of these people are being honest and accurate? How many journalists who know almost nothing about the subject matter would back themselves to question the credibility of a talking head who sounds like s/he knows what s/he is talking about?

The media is clearly failing in its mission to explain to the public What This Means, but it’s hard to imagine how they might do a better job of it.

4

Survey shows climate change scepticism has nothing to do with science

The University of Queensland (UQ) surveyed more than 300 federal, state and local government politicians about their views on climate change. The headline figure: about 70 per cent believed in human-induced climate change and rated it one of the country’s most important challenges.

But when they broke this figure down by party affiliation, this is what emerged:

  • 98% of Greens said the planet was warming because of human activity producing greenhouse gases
  • 89% of Labor pollies agreed, along with
  • 57% of non-aligned politicians and
  • 38% of Liberal-Nationals.

This presents us with two complete WTFs.

  1. As Jeff Sparrow points out, there must be one climate sceptic in the Greens.
  2. Climate change scepticism moves almost entirely along party lines.

If there were a serious, legitimate scientific debate about climate change, this would not be the case.

There would be people from all partieswho would be convinced by either side of the argument. Of course, there would be some degree of bias along ideological grounds; Greens and Labor are traditionally more pro-environment while the Coalition tends to support business. But it could not possibly be so stark.

In reality, we have people automatically taking positions on a question of scientific debate based entirely on their political beliefs.

The only conclusion a thinking person can draw is that climate change scepticism is an entirely political movement, which has nothing to do with science and everything to do with ideology. It could not be more obvious.

8

Population alarmists are always wrong

In recent months, the issue of Australia’s population has become increasingly contentious. But those who advocate unpleasant measures to make our population more ‘sustainable’ are looking at the problem from entirely the wrong angle.

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd wholeheartedly supported the idea of a ‘big Australia’, with a projected population of 36 million by 2050. As a means of differentiating herself from her predecessor, Prime Minister Julia Gillard said she wanted a “sustainable” population, although she has been unwilling to give a number.

In the current election campaign, the issue has devolved into a race to the bottom, with the Opposition claiming its population goals are even lower – thus more sustainable – than the Government’s.

At the same time, population-control viewpoints have been much more prominent in the media. Next week, the ABC will screen Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle, a documentary in which the entrepreneur will air his views on the potential dangers of Australian and global population growth.

Recently ABC News 24 interviewed Mark O’Connor, co-author of Overloading Australia, member of the Stable Population Party of Australia and a candidate for the Senate in the upcoming federal election. (Mark was also the celebrant at my wedding and I have a great deal of admiration for him.) Dick Smith bought a crateload of copies of Overloading Australia and posted them to all state and federal politicians and mayors around the country.

By limiting immigration, sustainable population activists aim to ensure Australia’s population will top out at around 26 million people. But even this may be too many; Professor Tim Flannery believes the long-term human carrying capacity of the Australian continent and Tasmania could be as low as 8 million people.

This notion of ‘carrying capacity’ – that we will simply run out of resources to sustain current levels of population growth – has been thoroughly discredited. Brendan O’Neill in Spiked provides an excellent summary.

Thomas Malthus was wrong in the early 19th century when he predicted “epidemics, pestilence and plagues” would “sweep off tens of thousands” if we didn’t get working-class birth rates under control.

Paul Ehrlich was wrong in the early 1970s when he predicted “hundreds of millions of people [would] starve to death” in India by 1980 or so.

Malthus and Ehrlich backed up their arguments with scientific-sounding factoids, but what actually drove their views was a deep hatred of other humans (those of lower class or darker skin, respectively) and a failure to grasp our species’ amazing ability to adapt and overcome problems.

This is why today’s green-tinged neo-Malthusians are wrong when they claim our current population growth is ecologically unsustainable, or can only occur at the expense of living standards. Despite the exponential growth of the world’s population, living standards are higher now than they have ever been in history.

They claim to eschew China-style coercive population control practices but fail to explain how education campaigns or handing out condoms could possibly achieve their goals, especially given the spread of anti-contraception religions across the developing world.

It is also a total failure of imagination to believe that even if we can’t solve all the potential problems of population growth with today’s technology, we will not find ways to do so in the future. History has shown, again and again, that we could and we did. There is no reason to believe we can not or will not in future.

As population grows, so do technology and society. We find ways to cope. We find alternatives to scarce resources. We come up with brilliant ways of feeding and housing ourselves and living with each other.

The fact is, we’re not doing those things well at the moment. We’re not developing renewable energy or building the infrastructure to cope with the pressures of population growth.

But to claim the answer to crowded trains or traffic jams or water shortages or even global warming is sealing off our borders or having fewer babies, rather than using all our intelligence and industriousness to fix the problems, smacks of a Luddite hatred of progress and a deep misanthropy.

2

I’ll drink to that

Serial wowser Ian Hickie from the Brain and Mind Research Institute has for weeks been peddling to the media his idea that we should raise the legal drinking age to counter the scourge of teenage binge drinking.

The crux of his argument is that young people’s brains are still developing and exposure to excessive amounts of alcohol during this period could lead to increased dumbness, or at least reduced cleverness, and a greater risk of mental health problems.

Of course, Professor Hickie lacks any scientific evidence that raising the drinking age would improve the situation.

But just to give you a very rough idea, what if there were a country where the legal drinking age was 21 instead of 18? Wouldn’t the citizens of that country be, overall, less dumb than those of countries with a lower legal drinking age? Wouldn’t they suffer fewer mental health problems?

What’s that you say? The legal drinking age in the United States is 21 and has been for decades? Goodness me!

So if Ian Hickie were correct, US citizens would be the smartest and mentally healthiest people on the planet.

But it turns out more US citizens believe in angels than the theory of evolution or anthropogenic climate change. A lot more.

Seems like the evidence doesn’t stack up, prof…

1

Adventures in TV repair

Came home the other night to find the TV on and the house unusually warm. Suspected burglary, but nothing seemed to be missing. Figured the TV had caught a random cosmic ray and switched itself on, and it puts out a fair amount of heat.

Things got weirder on Sunday night. TV kept turning the volume up to 100 by itself. Suspected poltergeist with hearing difficulties.

Process of elimination: remove batteries from remote – still happening. Cover infrared port on TV, in case of random radiation source in the room – seemed to work at first, then didn’t. Twiddle with buttons in case one of them got stuck – non-sticky electronic buttons don’t appear to get stuck or to be capable of unsticking.

Evaluate options: take TV to repair shop, stop watching TV, dismantle TV and poke around the insides, call exorcist. TV is weird LCD thing from Chinese manufacturer nobody’s ever heard of, Konka. Possibly similar to Sorny or Magnetbox.

Pfft.  I know a genuine Panaphonics when I see it.

Pfft. I know a genuine Panaphonics when I see it.

Likelihood of parts availability: minimal. TV addiction too entrenched to consider breaking on a Sunday night before work. Don’t believe in ghosts.

Leaving option 3.

Unplug all cables from TV, lie it flat on dining table, unscrew 25 screws, remove back cover. As expected, button assembly is a discrete component connected to the rest of the TV with a small ribbon cable. Twiddle with ribbon cable connector, appears sound. Unscrew button assembly from frame, pull away from TV with loud glue-unsticking noises. Muck around with button area, twiddle with two additional ribbon cable connectors. Stick button assembly back in place, screw back into frame, twiddle with connectors again. Replace cover, screw in 25 screws, connect power cable to TV. Volume levels remain at preset level.

Plug cables back into TV, realise I’ve missed Dr Who. Watch 5 minutes of Foyle’s War before deciding I’m not in the mood for twee period drama, and besides, Honeysuckle Weeks has a weird name. Read book, retire to bed early.

7

Smart-arse Jewish scientists explain how sarcasm works

A team of neuropsychologists from Haifa University have worked out how the brain processes sarcasm.

Dr Simone Shamay-Tsoory said language areas on the left hand side of the brain interpret the literal meaning of words and the frontal lobes and the right side of the brain understand the social and emotional context. An area called the right ventromedial prefrontal cortex then integrates the literal meaning with the social/emotional context, which will reveal any sarcasm.

People who suffer from autism or have had one of those parts of their brains damaged have trouble interpreting sarcasm – they tend to understand the statement literally – because they don’t pick up the emotional context or can’t reconcile the context with the literal meaning.

(Image courtesy of BBC)

Perhaps these parts of the brain atrophy through disuse, or can be removed through selective breeding. Which might explain Americans.

1

Eat shit and feel ill, celebrities

Ordinarily, celebrity stories are meant to make us envious. Tales of glamorous, wealthy people dining on fine foods and quaffing bank-account-draining beverages supposedly make us see the futility and meaninglessness of our lumpen existences, which we seek to fill by purchasing the goods and services our celebrity heroes endorse.

The same must obviously be the case for news that guests at ‘actor’ Ashton Kutcher’s 30th birthday party may have been exposed to hepatitis A at swank West Village bar Socialista. Nothing says Cuban socialism like a $600 bottle of Moët & Chandon Dom Perignon Rosé, an $8 appetiser made of lettuce or a 20% surcharge added to parties of six or more.

Celebrity guests including Mrs Kutcher Demi Moore, Javier Bardem, Roberto Cavalli, Eric Dane (who?), Rebecca Gayheart (zuh?), Salma Hayek, Catherine Keener, Lucy Liu, Madonna, Gwyneth Paltrow, Ivanka Trump and Liv Tyler would no doubt be horrified to discover the most common method of hepatitis A infection is the faecal-oral route.

One can’t help but wonder what kind of cocktails they serve there.

Actually,  several hundred people who were not celebrities attended the same bar on the three nights the infected bartender was working, but who cares?

Upon reading this story, ordinary people will no doubt also wish they were inadvertently exposed to a virus that infects the liver, causing jaundice, fatigue, abdominal pain, loss of appetite,  nausea, diarrhoea and fever.

New York health authorities have warned said celebrities to get a vaccination quick smart. (It should be noted the health department warned the non-famous patrons as well.) Though to be honest, if they didn’t, you can’t imagine the world would be worse off. Shame hepatitis A is almost never fatal.

1

Don’t try new things

Visiting the inconvenience store near work the other day, I spied these interesting-looking snacks called Piranha Vege Crackers and thought I’d give them a try. They were nothing spectacular. Or so I thought.

The next day, I noticed a small news article noting that the manufacturer had recalled the chips because they contained “unusually high levels of naturally occurring compounds that could cause an adverse reaction”. I should be particularly worried if I was a small child or had eaten the product in moderate to large amounts.

I had only eaten one pack and am not a small child in most regards, and also I was still alive. So I wasn’t worried, except by the lack of information. The NSW Food Authority’s warning notice wasn’t any more helpful than the article. I emailed the Food Authority and they wrote back this afternoon.

This follows findings in a batch of exported vegetable crackers of higher than allowed legal levels of a naturally occurring cyanide compound in the ingredient cassava. Cyanogenic glycosides are naturally present in cassava (a tropical root crop) and can be converted to hydrogen cyanide when ingested, which can be harmful.  It is believed this ingredient is the likely source of the contamination. Symptoms of a mild reaction include dizziness, weakness, anxiety, a rapid pulse rate, nausea and vomiting and occur very shortly after eating.

And if you had a severe reaction? Queensland Health was more forthcoming:

“In severe cases mental confusion and twitching and convulsions,” Queensland Health population health senior director Linda Selvey told AAP.

“People who eat cassava prepare it in such a way that the compounds break down before you actually eat them and it would appear in this case that it hasn’t been prepared in such a way.”

Apparently washing it in water does the trick.

I always knew health food was bad for you, but this is ridiculous . . .

1

Google outspends Australia 20:1 on renewable energy

Earlier this week, Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin pledged to spend “hundreds of millions”, in the long run, on renewable energy research and projects in an initiative called RE<C (renewable energy cheaper than coal) (nerds).

The project’s eventual aim is to build one gigawatt of renewable energy capacity that is cheaper than coal. This is enough to power “a city the size of San Francisco”. (Though not, it seems, the actual city of San Francisco. Perhaps a city the size of San Francisco in a poorer country without all the energy-hogging fat Westerners in it.)

Anyhoo, a laudable aim, for sure, even if some cynical media types have pointed out Google’s interest is not entirely philanthropic, given its reliance on vast datacentres chock full of electricity-sucking servers.

By contrast, former PM Howard, even in über-generous election fire-sale mode, could only manage $75 million for renewables.  And commie Big Kev’s $500 million might only equal Google’s investments. Just for comparison, Google earned US$10.6 billion in 2006 (around $12 billion Oz); the Australian government ‘earned’ $232 billion in 2006-07.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation puts Google spending about 20 times more, as a proportion of revenue, than the Australian federal government on renewable energy. That’s taking into account the generous pledges of the Labor federal government that just got elected on its green credentials.

Seems like if there’s to be any real action on global warming, it’s going to come from the people and the private sector – not wishy washy politicos . . . of any flavour.